Fantasy Update
We've passed the one month mark in the 2006-2007 NHL season and I think a Fantasy Report Card is in order to mark the occassion. Thus far we've had a few surprises on the club level, but from an individual perspective, the names that are rising to the top aren't really a surprise. The ones falling to the bottom however, do raise a few eyebrows.
Forwards
Marian Hossa ATL - 15 goals, 15 assists, 30 Points +2
Jaromir Jagr NYR - 7 goals, 21 assists, 28 points +7
Ilya Kovalchuk ATL - 14 goals, 12 assists, 26 points even
Vyacheslav Koslov ATL - 9 goals, 17 assists, 26 points +6
Rod Brind'Amour CAR - 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points +3
Michael Nylander NYR - 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points +8
Daniel Briere BUF - 7 goals, 18 assists, 25 points +9
Is there any wonder why the Atlanta Thrashers are off to their best start in franchise history and are the third best team in the NHL with 27 points behind only Buffalo and Anaheim? Three forwards in the top 5 in scoring and a healthy Kari Lehtonen (we'll get to him more in a bit) are a big reason why this team should see their first ever post season action this year. Playoff Beards for everyone here please. While it's taken Jaromir Jagr some time to get the full strength of his shoulder back, his playmaking ability is still top shelf as his league leading 21 assists can confirm. It's also nice to Kovalchuk with an even rating, rather than in the minus column, which may mean that Hartley's efforts to get him to play defense may be getting through.
Defensemen
Tomas Kaberle TOR - 7 goals, 10 assists, 17 points +4
Bryan McCabe TOR - 4 goals, 12 assists, 16 points +6
Scott Niedermayer ANA - 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points +4
Chris Pronger ANA - 3 goals, 12 assists, 15 points +10
Matthew Carle SJS - 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points +6
Nicklas Lidstrom DET - 3 goals, 11assists, 14 points +17
Brian Campbell BUF - 2 goals, 12 assists, 14 points +11
Andrei Markov MON - 2 goals, 12 assists, 14 points +6
The Toronto Maple Leafs blue liners are getting it done big time this year. Bryan McCabe seems to have picked up where he left off last year where he had a career season with 68 points (19 goals, 49 assists) and Tomas Kaberle seems to be doing the same. He posted a career best 67 points (9 goals, 58 assists) last year for the Leafs and is off to another terrific start, and is 4 goals shy of his career best. Anaheim's two towers on defense have been as good as advertised. Scott Neidermayer and Chris Pronger sit in the top 5 of defensemen in scoring, and their efforts have lifted the Ducks to the top of the Western Conference with 30 points. Nicklas Lidstrom is consistently the best. His offensive stats are almost always forward worthy, but it's his +/- rating that always impresses me. Lidstrom is currently a +17 in 16 games played.
Goalies
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ANA - 10 wins, 2 shutouts
Marty Turco DAL - 10 wins, 1 shutout
Martin Brodeur NJD - 10 wins, 3 shutouts
Andrew Raycroft TOR - 9 wins 1 shutout
Ryan Miller BUF - 9 wins, 0 shutouts
Kari Lehtonen ATL - 9 wins, 0 shutouts
Cam Ward CAR - 9 wins, 1 shutout
Manny Fernandez MIN- 9 wins, 1 shutout
Vesa Toskala SJS- 9 wins, 1 shutout
While I'm still irritated as a Fantasy Owner of Coach Carlyle's handling of Anaheim's Ilya Bryzgalov, but there is no denying the fact that J.S. Giguere has rediscovered his Conn Smythe form of several seasons ago. Although there's no doubt playing behind the Ducks squad in front of him, particularly the defense has been beneficial, Giguere appears to be getting better by the game. Marty Turco has always been superb in the regular season, but he will be falling under a massive microscope come playoff time. If he fails to get it done this year he will be on the 'Manny Legace' train out of Texas. If Niklas Lidstrom played between the pipes, he would be called Martin Brodeur. Brodeur is always solid, and terrific at bouncing back after a rough start ( like tonight's game against the Rangers! WOO HOO). Raycroft has no doubt been a pleasant surprise for the Leafs. The former Calder Trophy winner who fell from grace, and Boston, has rebounded and played solid for Toronto this year. Ryan Miller is the man, and he's a big part of Buffalo's dominance this season. Kari Lehtonen after season's hampered by poor conditioning, and injuries has finally realized his full potential for the Atlanta Thrashers. Some recent weak play saw him benched for a few games watching backup Hedberg rack up a few wins was probably a good wake up call for him. Lehtonen is the key for the Thrashers this year. If he gets hurt, their playoff hopes will diminish rapidly. Cam Ward recovered from a few bad starts to open the season, and aside from being shelled by Buffalo Monday night, he's looked good. Manny Fernandez now the bonafide number one has embraced the role and helped turned the Minnesota Wild into a contender. Vesa Toskala although getting every other start with counterpart Evgeni Nablokov has thrived in the platoon system putting up solid numbers and most importantly wins for the San Jose Sharks.
Busts:
Daniel Alfredsson OTT - 4 goals, 10 asssists, 14 points even
Rick Nash CLB - 4 goals, 7 assists, 11 points -6
Peter Forsberg PHI - 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points -6
Simon Gagne PHI - 8 goals, 3 assists, 11 points -11
Patrick Elias NJD - 3 goals, 8 assists, 11 points -7
Markus Naslund VAN - 7 goals, 5 assists, 12 points even
Henrik Zetterberg DET - 5 goals, 2 assists, 7 points +6
Wade Redden OTT - 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points +3
There are probably more, but these names scream out dissapointment to me. Most of these players were probably drafted in the top two rounds of most fantasy leagues and failed to produce the numbers most expected of them. Alfredsson is a stunner. He was incredible last season putting up 103 points (43 goals, 60 assists) but has failed to produce for Ottawa this season, and is a big reason why this team is collapsing. He and Wade Redden. Rick Nash. Finally he arrives to start a season healthy, and what happens? Nothing. Even after missing almost two months of last season, Nash still put up 54 points (31 goals, 23 assists). The Blue Jackets have been a big let down, and they are the second team in this young season to see their coach hit the bricks. Forsberg and Gagne, well those two are big pieces in the unsolvable puzzle that is the Philadelphia Flyers. Naslund perhaps misses being in those big warm arms of Bertuzzi. He hasn't played bad, but his numbers are less than average for a player of extraordinary magnitude. Elias is off to a slow start, but it's his -7 rating that is worrying me. Not only is he not producing offense, but has become a major liability on the defensive side of the puck. Zetterberg's play has probably been masked by the fact that he plays on a solid hockey team. Masked to everyone but my boy Jeff and everyone who drafted him onto their Fantasy Roster that is.
Quick Shave:
Fired one week, hired the next? Look's like Ken Hitchcock may not be out of work for too long (although I though he was still in the Flyers organization as a scout, but I could be mistaken). The Columbus Blue Jackets who just fired their head coach Gerard Gallant, have received permission from the Flyers organization to interview Ken Hitchcock for their coaching position currently held by interim Gary Agnew. Hitchcock might be exactly what the Blue Jackets need, but can this taskmaster whip the club into the post season? The Calgary Flames have won five straight. No seriously. Miikka Kiprusoff stopped all 24 shots he faced and helped the Flames to a 3-0 shutout win over the St. Louis Blues. 90 seconds is all it took for Jaromir Jagr and Brendan Shanahan to ruin Martin Brodeur's evening. The New York Rangers forwards scored 3 goals in under 2 minutes to defeat the New Jersey Devils 3-2 last night. Brendan Shanahan became the first winner of the monthly Mark Messier Award for team leadership (sorry Marty). The Detroit Red Wings and Vancouver Canucks gave us a terrific Game of the Night.....but it was just a little more terrific for the Red Wings as they downed the Canucks 3-2. Ryan Smyth of the Edmonton Oilers is expected to be re-evaluated today after Monday night's knee no knee with Avs defenceman John-Michael Liles. Officials are calling it a charley horse right now, and if that's all he got from that hit, I would say count your blessings. Not only did Rolston not join the NHL HTC last night, but the Wild couldn't even beat the Phoenix Coyotes. You gotta love it when Georges Laraque decides to motivate his team by beating the crap out of another player. Regardless of how you may feel about his actions, they worked. The Phoenix Coyotes erased a 2 goal deficit and defeated the Northwest leading Minnesota Wild 4-3. Nice work GL!
Game of the Night:
NY Islanders at Dallas 8:30 PM
It's time to give the boys on the Island their due. I think they can take the Stars. Ted Nolan has done a great job getting the most out of his team, and finally found a way to motivate Alexei Yashin into the player he used to be. Oh, and if you are up late..... look for Ryan Getzlaf to join the NHL Hat Trick Club against the Flyers late tonight. Enjoy the games my chin mullet wearing friends!
Your friend on ice,
Captain Bosh




















Comments
I would throw Thorton into the bust category for his +/- stats alone. He finished last year with a +31 in 58 games with the sharks. Both Cheechoo and Thorton finished last year with higher +/- stats; The key may be Mark Bell who has never finished a season with a +?
Good call on Getzlaf at joining the HTC, if he doesn't get it I would think Perry might have a chance tonight. Another possibility is Pomminville vs. Ottawa, he has been tearing it up recently.
Posted by: Paul | November 15, 2006 07:07 AM
Agreed, nice pick with Getzlaf. I'll go with Zubrus in Washington against the Bruins.
Thornton has to be considered a disappointment but he's still in the top 25 in scoring. The -6 is bad but I'd say Cheechoo's a way bigger bust. He's not even in the top three point getters on San Jose, let alone the league, and he's only one point better than rookie d-man Matt Carle. Sucks for fantasty owners...but it seems the balance is probably good for the Sharks.
Thanks for spotlighting how awful Wade Redden has been this year. I finally had to drop him about two weeks ago after he had given me a grand total of one assist. He was the first defenceman I grabbed in the draft, too. Extra ouch.
Positive surprises this year have to include Thomas Vanek, Ray Whitney, Milan Michalek, Darcy Chin-thingy, Anze Kopitar, and the whole Zubrus-Semin-Clark gang in Washington. Tkachuk's also surprised me a bit; he's producing at nearly a point a game for a so-so team. Wasn't sure he still had that in him. I'd keep an eye on Yanic Perrault, too. Guy's played five games and he's got 3 goals and 2 assists. And on Phoenix that's saying something.
Was glad to see Shanny get that Messier award. Makes a lot of sense. Good award, but his goal last night was even better. We got get Jersey out of the divisional lead, Bosh!
Lastly, I'll give props to the Isles and what they've done so far on the year but I don't think they'll beat Turco in Dallas. Just like I didn't think Buffalo was going to beat Carolina the other night.
Posted by: Stache | November 15, 2006 07:37 AM
I'm sorry I missed Thornton, I do agree his point production is not that bad, but his +/- rating is awful. That's why I was a little rough on Elias.
+/- rating is one of the best ways to determine how good a player actually is, and is often overshadowed by offensive production. That's why I am always so impressed with Lidstrom, and his now +18 rating (after last night). When he's on the ice, the opposing teams don't score. Check out Thomas Vanek with +16 (his 22 points aren't too shabby either).
Good call on Pomminville Paul. I gave him the nod against the Flyers the other night, but he let me down. All Getzlaf tonight.
Posted by: Captain Bosh | November 15, 2006 10:51 AM
Some thoughts on the plus minus,
I think that the plus minus rating is not a useful tool in judging players abilities anymore. Today in the NHL, we are seeing the teams best players participating on both penalty killing and power plays. The TV timeouts have almost assured that these top players are on the ice more than ever. Also, we are seeing forwards being put on defense for power plays. This is causing disruption in the flow of the lines for 5 on 5 situations. From the player’s point of view, why would the top players take any chances on a 5 on 5 situations when they know they will have a power play chance in the next few shifts. In the past you needed to score 5 on 5 to win. Today, you can easily win games just on special teams. I think a more accurate plus minus rating would include all goals scored, 5 on 5, power play, and penalty killing. This would give a more accurate rating of how the player is succeeding or failing.
Posted by: Slue-foot | November 15, 2006 12:41 PM
So what if the +/- rating was revised to include the power play? I think this could easily be done.
Let's say a player gets a point on the powerplay, he should be awarded a +.5. However if the unit on the ice surrenders a goal to the shorthanded squad, all five will recieve a -2.
408 of Jagr's 1460 points, have come on the PP. 141 of Kovalchuk's 329 points have come on the power play. Kovalchuk's career +/- rating is -59, while Jagr's is +248.
Jagr's new rating under the Playoff Beard +/- Rating System (i am such a whore)would be a +452, and Kovalchuk's would be a +11.5.
After +/-, I think the next best judgement of a player's abilities is playoff beard density....but I am slightly biased.
Posted by: Captain Bosh | November 15, 2006 02:14 PM
Where can we petition to have the playoff beard density as an official stat?
Would it be a measurement(inches/mm) or a rating(stubble-chewbacca)?
Posted by: Paul | November 15, 2006 02:19 PM
We here at Playoff Beard.com are currently developing an objective, quantitative system of grading facial hair.
Definitely has to be a rating: it's just really akward to try and measure a guys facial hair in (length of hair)/(area of beard coverage)
Posted by: jeff | November 15, 2006 03:13 PM
Not to mention, I heard that the last time a guy got near Corey Stillman's face with a ruler he ate their SOUL...
Posted by: Stache | November 15, 2006 03:20 PM
Well, when I made my decision on awarding Bret Hedican the Norris Trophy, I used the helmet chin strap as a guide. When you can no longer see that your playoff beard is top notch.
When Hedican's mouth disappeared, he won hands down.
Posted by: Captain Bosh | November 15, 2006 04:14 PM
So the less face you see the better... maybe it should just be a rating on what parts of the face are still visible.
Hey that guys got a mouth rating, hey that guys has a nose rating, or there is a hair ball on that growing from that guys neck
Posted by: Paul | November 15, 2006 06:36 PM
In 100% for the facial rating, btw, stitches should be counted. It could be argued that if they had more and thicker (Chuck Norris style) facial hair that they would never get a cut.
However, I like the thought for + / - ratings with one addition.
even strength goal +1 or -1
power play goal, +.5
power play goal against, - .5
short handed goal, +2
Like the thought.
Posted by: Slue-foot | November 15, 2006 08:04 PM
The +/- rating powerplay system is great!
Shorthanded goal rating should be +2 for the penalty kill unit, and -2 for the powerplay unit that is scored upon. Someone get Bettman on the phone!
A good playoff beard will protect you from anything....high sticks, stray pucks, bullets, light sabres, throwing stars, empty Molson Bottles, you name it.
Posted by: Captain Bosh | November 15, 2006 11:12 PM